65. Human SARS-Like Virus Genomic Replikin(TM) Count Rises To The Level That Preceded The 2003 Lethal SARS Outbreak October 10, 2012
Wednesday 10 October 2012
Can the SARS virus return? An analysis of the current virus's genomic
Replikin Count has revealed the Count to be increased significantly above the preceding low 'resting' levels 2004-2011. The Count is now in the same elevated range found in 2002 before the 2003 SARS outbreak.
The identification of the virus responsible for a second case of SARS-like respiratory virus, "London1_novel CoV 2012", has raised concerns over the risk of the disease spreading (1). These concerns may be justified given the observed rise in virus's genomic Replikin(TM) Count.
An analysis of the current virus's genomic Replikin Count by Bioradar UK Ltd has revealed the Count to be increased significantly above the preceding low 'resting' levels 2004-2011. The Count is now in the same elevated range found in 2002 before the 2003 SARS outbreak (2). That is, currently, the Replikin Counts in several genomic areas of "human betacoronavirus 2c EMC/2012" are 2.6, 3.5, 3.9 and 8.5.
The Figure shows that the previous low Counts between 1995 and 2001 preceded the three-fold increase in 2002 to a mean of 4.5 (+/-3), which was followed in 2003 by a SARS outbreak with 8,000 cases and 774 deaths.
While two sporadic current human SARS-like cases with high Replikin Counts 'do not an outbreak make,' elevated genomic Replikin Counts of H1N1 observed in only two sporadic cases reported on Pubmed from Mexico in each of 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2008, presaged the onset in Mexico of the H1N1 Pandemic of 2009 (3).
The established pattern of genomic Replikin Counts increasing to high levels, accompanied by sporadic lethal human cases, followed by an outbreak of rapidly replicating spreading lethal human disease, was also found in six other correct predictions in influenza made one to two years in advance (4, 5). The geographic locations of these outbreaks were also specified, as in lethal outbreaks of H5N1 in 2006-2007 in Indonesia, and currently in Cambodia. Similarly, the highest Replikin Counts in Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) virus in 52 years (2) predicted the current outbreaks of FMD in Asia and the Middle East one year in advance.
The observation of increasing Replikin Counts provides time to prepare an optimal public health response, time to prepare vaccines and other therapies specific to the oncoming organism, in sufficient quantity, and time to adequately test and distribute the vaccine before the hit-and-run outbreak has begun to disappear as happened in 2009 (2-4).
In addition, the new Replikins synthetic vaccines provide distinct advantages over traditional vaccines. They are tailored to the specific Replikins in the current threatening organism, solid-phase synthesized completely free of biologicals, thus containing no bio-contaminants, synthesized in seven days instead of eight months, and effective when shipped freeze-dried, not requiring refrigeration.
- Roos, Robert. CIDRAP news, September 25, 2012 on Human betacoronavirus 2c EMC/2012, van Boheemen,S. et al GenBank: JX869059.1
- Bogoch, S. and Bogoch, E.S. Genome Replikin Count(TM) Predicts Increased Infectivity/Lethality of Viruses. Nature Precedings npre20127144. O4April 2012.
- Bogoch, S. and Bogoch, E.S. Prediction of specific virus outbreaks made from the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, replikins. Nature Precedings doi:10.1038/npre.2011.6279.1.23Aug 2011.
- Bogoch,S. and Bogoch, ES. Bogoch Replikins Pandemic Prevention: Increase of Strain-Specific Influenza Genomic Replikin Counts, Having Predicted Outbreaks and their Location Seven Times Consecutively, Up to Two Years in Advance, Provides Time for Prevention of Pandemics. Nature Precedings.doi:10.1038/npre.2012.6952.1 01 March, 2012
- UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) discussion of Replikins, DVM Newsmagazine, (Sept. 8, 2011). Reproduced in Report #42 , Replikins.com