53. Can a Pandemic Be Prevented? July 30, 2012
LONDON, July 30, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- A marked increase in the H5N1 pB1 Lethality Gene Replikin Count (number of Replikins per 100 amino acids) in Cambodia in 2009 (Figure 1 below) provided a warning for the outbreaks of the Avian Flu (H5N1) with human deaths in that country. Eight deaths were reported in 2011 and three thus far in 2012.
This was one of seven consecutive correct predictions by genomic Replikins of coming viral outbreaks tied to specific geographical locations (Refs. 1, 3-5), thus raising the question: can a flu pandemic be prevented? The United Nations Food & Agricultural Organization (FAO) noted (Ref. 3) that increases in Replikin Count like those in the Figures, have been followed by an outbreak 1-2 years later (Refs. 1, 5).
In contrast to the increase in the Lethality Gene, the Replikins Infectivity Gene was not increased in 2009 beyond the levels in the Indonesia H5N1 outbreaks of 2006, giving hope that the present outbreak might remain limited. However, as seen in Figure 1b, the evolution of H5N1 (Ref. 4) has continued. The H5N1 Infectivity Gene Replikin Count has increased in Cambodia to the highest recorded percent of sequences with Replikin Counts greater than 4.0 (p<0.001).
Highs of H5N1 Infectivity and Lethality Gene Replikin Counts in Cambodia are duplicating the time-course of H1N1 Replikins 2006-2008 in Mexico (Ref. 5), which preceded the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic and permitted its prediction from Replikin Count alone (1). Further, just as sporadic human deaths due to H1N1 occured in the pre-H1N1 pandemic years in Mexico, sporadic H5N1 deaths are occurring in Cambodia due to proven H5N1.
Early Warning & Synthetic Vaccines
Because of this early warning system specific to the strain, the genomic Replikin structures, and the geographic site, pandemic prevention at a limited geographic site can be attempted now for the first time with synthetic vaccines, and are applicable to the current conserved genomic H5N1 Replikin sequences identified in Cambodia.
Completely synthetic solid phase vaccines, composed of peptides only (not DNA, avoiding the risks of vaccine DNA being permanently incorporated into human genomes), synthesized in seven days, and shipped in freeze-dried form, have been found effective against H5N1 in chickens and against Taura Syndrome Virus in shrimp (Refs.6,7).
- Bogoch S, Bogoch ES. Replikins Pandemic Prevention: Increase of Strain-Specific Influenza Genomic Replikin Counts, Having Predicted Outbreaks and their Location Seven Times Consecutively, Up to Two Years in Advance, Provides Time for Prevention of Pandemics. Nature Precedings doi:10.1038/npre.2012.6952.1
- WHO and Ministry of Health, Cambodia Press Releases. August 23, 2011 and June 5, 2012
- UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) discussion of Replikins. DVM Newsmagazine Rome Sept. 8, 2011
- Report #49. Replikins Press<replikins.com>.Discovered Evolution of Genomic Sequences -- from Ocean Archaea to Brain Cancer -- Leads to New Synthetic Replikin Vaccines for Infectious Diseases and Cancer, June 19, 2012
- Bogoch S, Bogoch ES. Prediction of specific virus outbreaks made from the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, replikins. Nature Precedings doi:10.1038/npre.2011.6279.1
- Jackwood et al . Efficacy of a Replikin Peptide Vaccine against Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza H5 VirusAvian Diseases 53(4):613-617, 2009.
- Report # 17. Replikins Press<replikins.com>.Replikins Oral Vaccine Synthesized in 7 days protects 91% of Shrimp Against Lethal Virus . March 11, 2008.