45. Current H5N1 Flu Outbreak and Location Predicted in 2009 February 10, 2012
Cambodian Avian Flu Marks Fifth Time an Increase in the Flu Strain's Replikins Count® Foretold a (Preventable) Viral Outbreak
LONDON, Feb. 10, 2012 -- Bioradar UK Ltd. reported today the fifth instance in which the specific strain and specific location of an influenza outbreak were predicted by the Replikins Count® (number of genomic Replikin peptides per 100 amino acids) alone, one to two years in advance of the outbreak. While the high-lethality H5N1 p B1 gene Replikins Count® increased globally from 2000 to 2010, uniquely in Cambodia it increased markedly in 2009.
The previous four predictions were made for H5N1 in Indonesia in 2006 (6); for H1N1 in Mexico in 2008, which spread to become the global pandemic of 2009 (1); for H1N1 in Europe in 2010 (1); and for H1N1 in Mexico in 2010 for the outbreak there in 2011(9). The current Replikins Count® in Cambodia has not yet decreased, as it does when the outbreaks are over (1-7). Replikins Count® warning may enable the prevention of emerging diseases rather than just waiting passively for the outbreak. Replikins TransFlu™Vaccine was found to be effective against H5N1 in chickens (8).
If the 2009 H5N1 sequences had been available on PubMed for Replikins analysis in 2009, instead of their apparent first publication in 2011, it would have provided a two-year advance warning of the high mortality human outbreaks now occurring in Cambodia (10). Two years were available to prepare, test, distribute, and administer to high-risk individuals in Cambodia specific Replikins TransFlu™Vaccine or other vaccines. Genomic sequences should be made available for earliest possible Replikins Count® Analysis now that it is recognized by the FAO (3,9) that the Count provides a reliable predictive marker of outbreaks.
The Replikins Count® is the first reliable quantitative genomic method to predict outbreaks of specific lethal infectious diseases, and thus a genomic key to explore and predict virus evolution. Since 1917, influenza outbreaks invariably follow or accompany marked increases in the Count, and disappearance of the outbreak occurs with decrease in the Count (1-7). The Count demonstrates that the evolution of a particular strain of influenza virus, although often gradual over years, as in Mexico 2003-2009 (1), with time for host defense adaptation, can be rapid, with more immediate disease consequences, as in Indonesia in 2006 (6) and in Cambodia in 2009 for the current outbreak.
A book in preparation, The Evolution of Lethal Replikins (7), will provide a fuller report of the evolutionary development of lethal pathogens in influenza, in other viruses, bacteria and trypanosomes. It will also more fully discuss the role of the Replikins Count® as a marker of and determinant of lethality. Because of the current global concern about H5N1 (3,10), H5N1 Replikin Count® data is being published as a preprint in advance of the book, available by contacting: email@example.com or Tel: S. Bogoch, 978-606-6950.
- Bogoch, Samuel and Bogoch, Elenore. Prediction of specific virus outbreaks made from the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, replikins. Nature Precedings http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/npre.2011.6279.1(2011)
- Bogoch, Samuel and Bogoch, Elenore. Marked Rise in Replikin Counts in H5N1 Influenza Virus Localized to p B1. Available from Nature Precedings http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/npre.2011.6420.1 (2011)
- UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) discussion of Replikins, DVM Newsmagazine, Sept. 8, 2011. Reproduced in Replikins Report #42, Replikins.com.
- H1N1 Influenza Virus with Highest Replikin Count™ Since the 1918 Pandemic Identified in the U.S. and Austria (April 7, 2008). Replikins Report #18, Replikins.com.
- Replikins Provided Advance Warning of Mexican H1N1 "Swine Flu" Virus Outbreak (April 25, 2009). Replikins Report #26, Replikins.com.
- Indonesia Reports Experiencing Human H5N1 Mortality Increase, as Predicted Last Year by Replikins' FluForecast® Quantitative Virus Analysis (June 8, 2007). Replikins Report #12, Replikins.com.
- Bogoch, S and Bogoch, ES. The Evolution of Lethal Replikins. In preparation, 2012.
- Jackwood, MW, et al. Efficacy of a Replikin peptide Vaccine Against Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza H5 Virus. Avian Diseases 53(4):613-617, 2009.
- FAO Warnings Follow Rise in Replikins Count for both H5N1 and H1N1. Aug.31, 2011. Replikins Report #41. Replikins.com.
- Associated Press. Vietnam and Cambodia Report Bird Flu Deaths. Wall Street Journal, page 1, January 20, 2012.